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GRAIL Inc (GRAL)
NASDAQ:GRAL
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GRAIL Inc
(NASDAQ:GRAL)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▼(-6.27%Downside)
Positive Factors
Market Position
GRAIL has a first-mover advantage in the multi-cancer early detection (MCED) testing market, driven by its leading generation of clinical data and large addressable market.
Revenue Growth
Strong Screening revenue growth of 39% year-over-year demonstrates robust demand for Grail Inc's services.
Strategic Partnerships
New strategic partnerships with Quest Diagnostics and TRICARE Health Insurance are expected to expand Grail Inc's reach and grow the market ahead of significant study readouts.
Negative Factors
Cash Burn
The company burned nearly $90 million in cash during 1Q25, which was slightly higher than the analyst's estimate.
Lack of Immediate Catalysts
A lack of near-term catalysts is currently limiting the potential for immediate stock price growth or significant changes in analyst recommendations.
Revenue Decline
Development services revenue declined by 13% year-over-year, indicating a slowdown in this segment of Grail Inc's business.
GRAIL Inc (GRAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.38B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.74
Revenue Growth30.47%
EPS Growth-26.63%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.10
Shares Outstanding35,973,495
10 Day Avg. Volume1,103,883
30 Day Avg. Volume1,451,293
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-2.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-14.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.50Price Target Upside-17.99% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
GRAIL Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGRAIL, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on developing technologies for early cancer detection. The company develops Galleri, a screening test for asymptomatic individuals over 50 years of age; and DAC, a diagnostic aid for cancer tests to accelerate diagnostic resolution for patients for whom there is a clinical suspicion of cancer. It is also developing minimal residual disease and other post-diagnostic tests. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Menlo Park, California. GRAIL, Inc. operates as a former subsidiary of Illumina, Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyGRAIL Inc makes money primarily through the commercialization of its early cancer detection tests. The company generates revenue by selling these diagnostic tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. Additionally, GRAIL may engage in partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and other healthcare organizations to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. These collaborations can provide additional revenue streams through research and development agreements, licensing, and co-marketing efforts. The company's revenue is also influenced by its ability to navigate regulatory environments and secure market access for its innovative diagnostic solutions.
GRAIL Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -10.45%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented strong first-quarter results with significant revenue growth and positive trial results, alongside strategic partnerships and market expansion. However, concerns about future funding and uncertainty around key trial results present challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Top-Line Results from NHS-Galleri Trial
The prevalent round of screening in the 140,000 participant NHS-Galleri trial showed strong Galleri performance in detecting multiple types of cancers with very low false positive rates.
Galleri Test Commercial Performance
GRAIL sold more than 37,000 Galleri tests in the first quarter, with over 325,000 tests prescribed by more than 14,000 healthcare providers since its launch in 2021.
Revenue Growth
First quarter revenue was $31.8 million, up 19% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Screening revenue was $29.1 million, up 24% year-over-year.
Cash Runway and Financial Management
GRAIL ended the quarter with a cash position of $677.9 million, with a cash burn for 2025 expected to be no more than $320 million, extending the runway into 2028.
Partnerships and Market Expansion
New partnerships with Athena Health and Quest Diagnostics are streamlining Galleri test ordering, and commercial launch in Israel has begun in partnership with OncoTest.
High Specificity and Positive Predictive Value
Galleri demonstrated a specificity of 99.5% and a positive predictive value higher than 43%, as observed in the PATHFINDER study.
Negative Updates
Concerns Over Cash Burn and Future Funding
Despite efforts to reduce cash burn, concerns remain about the ability to fund operations through FDA approval and CMS reimbursement, especially with several years until potential approval and reimbursement.
Uncertainty Around NHS Galleri Trial Final Results
The final results of the NHS Galleri trial, critical for commercialization in the UK, are not expected until mid-2026, creating uncertainty in the near term.
Company Guidance
During the GRAIL First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance highlighting several key metrics and achievements. GRAIL reported a revenue of $31.8 million, a 19% increase compared to the previous year, with screening revenue at $29.1 million, up 24%. The company sold over 37,000 Galleri tests in the first quarter and noted that more than 325,000 tests have been prescribed since its 2021 launch. The NHS-Galleri trial demonstrated a higher positive predictive value (PPV) than the 43% observed in the PATHFINDER study. GRAIL's specificity was reported at 99.5% with a cancer signal origin (CSO) accuracy of 88%. The company is on track for a cash burn of no more than $320 million for the year, representing a 40% decrease from 2024, and maintains a cash position of $677.9 million, projecting a runway into 2028. GRAIL anticipates completing its PMA submission to the FDA in the first half of 2026, with final results from the NHS-Galleri trial expected mid-2026.GRAIL Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
GRAIL Inc. shows strong revenue growth but continues to face profitability challenges with negative margins. A robust equity position and low leverage provide financial stability, yet cash flow remains a concern due to negative free cash flow and reliance on external financing.Income Statement
GRAIL Inc. has shown substantial revenue growth with a 34.89% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a loss with a negative gross profit margin of -62.12% and a net profit margin of -161.42% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
GRAIL Inc. maintains a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 83.92%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, signifying limited leverage. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses. The company's high stockholders' equity relative to total assets suggests financial stability but profitability remains a concern.72
Positive
Cash Flow
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, indicating cash flow challenges. Free cash flow has improved slightly, but remains negative at -$582.36 million. The company raised $1.24 billion in financing activities, aiding liquidity but highlighting reliance on external funding.65
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 125.59M | 93.11M | 55.55M | 0.00 | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| -78.02M | -95.61M | -116.45M | 0.00 | -10.31M | EBIT |
| -2.19B | -1.52B | -742.46M | -316.30M | -253.46M | EBITDA |
| -610.17M | -620.90M | -575.57M | -308.73M | -243.14M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -2.03B | -1.47B | -5.40B | -312.16M | -244.85M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 763.47M | 97.29M | 241.60M | 583.48M | 544.34M | Total Assets |
| 2.98B | 3.91B | 5.60B | 706.30M | 635.52M | Total Debt |
| 68.14M | 84.41M | 96.01M | 57.54M | 42.04M | Net Debt |
| -146.09M | -12.88M | -145.59M | -112.66M | -101.15M | Total Liabilities |
| 479.90M | 267.63M | 955.94M | 144.46M | 84.99M | Stockholders Equity |
| 2.50B | 3.65B | 4.65B | 561.84M | 550.53M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -582.36M | -608.69M | -584.17M | -243.91M | -249.13M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -577.16M | -595.80M | -561.31M | -232.00M | -245.79M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -551.01M | -12.89M | -22.86M | -12.79M | 133.04M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 1.24B | 463.77M | 604.82M | 275.11M | 160.33M |
GRAIL Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
38.41
Price Trends
32.22
Positive
31.97
Positive
23.82
Positive
Market Momentum
2.18
Positive
52.86
Neutral
54.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.79, above the 50-day MA of 32.22, and above the 200-day MA of 23.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRAL.
GRAIL Inc Risk Analysis
GRAIL Inc disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GRAIL Inc reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GRAIL Inc Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $19.35B | 21.91 | 13.35% | 1.76% | 9.38% | 6.43% | |
70 Outperform | $9.77B | 108.12 | 2.67% | ― | 3.31% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $21.54B | ― | -18.66% | ― | 51.50% | 53.23% | |
66 Neutral | $1.38B | ― | -62.22% | ― | 30.47% | -26.63% | |
57 Neutral | $4.85B | 20.06 | -16.90% | 5.20% | 13.58% | -28.06% | |
47 Neutral | $5.03B | ― | -4584.47% | ― | 28.20% | 13.87% | |
45 Neutral | $51.82M | ― | 138.92% | ― | 64.15% | 41.65% |
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GRAL
GRAIL Inc
38.41
24.11
168.60%
QGEN
Qiagen
45.13
1.14
2.59%
DGX
Quest Diagnostics
173.34
35.03
25.33%
VNRX
VolitionRX
0.50
-0.23
-31.51%
NTRA
Natera
157.73
49.42
45.63%
GH
Guardant Health
40.62
13.21
48.19%
GRAIL Inc Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
GRAIL Inc Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 30, 2025
On May 29, 2025, GRAIL, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders with a quorum of 29,682,974 shares represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected William Chase as a Class I Director to serve until 2028 and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (GRAL) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GRAIL Inc stock, see the GRAL Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.