With the clock ticking down to the November 5 election, the betting scene is heating up, particularly on Polymarket. Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning are soaring, now sitting at an impressive 67%, bolstered by a mysterious whale dropping another $2 million on “Yes” shares. According to onchain intelligence firm Lookonchain, this whale, dubbed “zxgngl,” has thrown a whopping $7.22 million into the ring, resulting in an unrealized profit of around $256,000 since October 11. “The whale’s got guts,” commented a political bettor, suggesting that this is no small-time gamble.
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As Elon Musk pointed out, these decentralized markets could be more accurate than traditional polls. Interestingly, Trump’s odds took a sharp turn upward after the whale’s investments, flipping from a shaky September into a confident October. This isn’t just a game of chance; it’s a strategic chess match playing out in real time.
The Impact of Election Chatter on Prediction Markets
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is turning prediction markets into a frenzy, with trading volumes skyrocketing by over 565% in the third quarter, hitting a staggering $3.1 billion. This surge is largely fueled by the election chatter, as participants place their bets on potential outcomes. Polymarket is leading the charge, holding a staggering 99% market share.
This isn’t just speculation; the stakes are high, and the pressure is palpable. A fellow bettor noted that “it feels like everyone has their eyes glued to the screen, waiting for the next update.” As the race heats up, every bit of data seems to fuel more bets and bigger stakes.
Robinhood Joins the Race with Election Contracts
In a bid to capitalize on the election excitement, Robinhood (HOOD) has also jumped into the fray, launching U.S. presidential election event contracts. This new offering allows users to bet on the outcome of the highly contested race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. With volatility expected in the markets, Robinhood aims to attract retail traders looking to make a quick buck.
Year-to-date, HOOD stock has soared by almost 120%.
