Tom Lee isn’t backing down. As markets wobble under tariff drama and recession fears, one of Wall Street’s most unapologetic bulls says investors need to hang tight—because President Trump wants stocks to rally. That’s the call Lee’s making, and he’s sticking to it.
Lee Argues Trump Has Skin in the Game
Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat, thinks the bears are missing something big. He believes Trump cares far more about the market than he lets on—despite the president’s recent claim that he “can’t watch the stock market” because he’s focused on “building a strong country.”
In Lee’s view, there’s now a clear “Trump put” forming—a term used to describe the idea that the White House would step in with policy support if stocks fall too far. Speaking to MarketWatch, Lee argued that Trump “likely wants to see a market rally because it would validate his inelegant negotiation of the tariff landscape.”
There’s also the political math. Slumping approval ratings and weak consumer sentiment surveys tied to tariffs could prompt Trump to pivot fast if equities start falling harder.
A U.S. Recession Would Be Costly—and Embarrassing
Lee’s logic is also economic. A market crash could push the U.S. into a costly recession. That would require massive stimulus and hurt business confidence. Worse still, it could derail Trump’s efforts to encourage onshoring, which depends on “friendly” capital markets and strong equity valuations.
And with private-sector payrolls coming in stronger than expected, Lee sees no reason to panic—yet.
Lee’s Past Calls Add Credibility to His Outlook
While Lee’s optimism walks the fine line between bold and brash, he’s no stranger to being right. He nailed the S&P 500’s 2023 closing level and was close again in 2024. For 2025, he’s still calling for a 6,600 finish—above current levels even after recent pullbacks.
Of course, not everyone’s convinced. Société Générale (SCGLY) just slashed its S&P target to 6,400, blaming AI fatigue and a broader pause in “American exceptionalism.” But for now, Lee’s staying bullish—on Trump, on stocks, and on the power of political self-interest.
In Lee’s eyes, this isn’t just politics. It’s survival instinct. If Trump wants a rally badly enough, Lee says, don’t be surprised if policy shifts follow the market—not the other way around.
S&P 500 Rally Lends Weight to Lee’s Argument
For now, the S&P 500 seems to be holding its ground despite headline stress. After dipping earlier in the quarter, the index has started to rebound, lending some weight to Lee’s view that the market may be in recovery mode—and that Trump may be more invested in that rebound than he lets on.
The S&P 500 was last at 5,633.07, down just 0.7% over the past five days, but still up 8.2% over the past year.
