‘Time to Take a Pause,’ Says Investor About Nvidia Stock

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has roared back to life over the past two months, following a decidedly uncharacteristic drop earlier in the year. Shares have now climbed roughly 50% since hitting a post-Liberation Day low, driven by easing trade tensions, strong AI demand, and another impressive earnings report last month.

That rebound comes despite several headwinds earlier in the year. The U.S.-China trade spat and fears of a broader pullback in AI-related capital expenditures had weighed heavily on investor sentiment. In particular, a targeted export restriction from the Trump administration on Nvidia’s H20 GPUs resulted in a $4.5 billion hit during the last quarter.

Still, it is hard to argue with Nvidia’s stellar performance during Q1 Fiscal 2026, during which the company delivered record revenues of $44 billion, a year-over-year surge of 69%. The all-important data center segment grew at an even faster clip of 73%.

While acknowledging the healthy earnings and NVDA’s recovering share price, investor Johnny Zhang is not convinced that all the geopolitical hiccups are in the rearview mirror.

“I believe the 2H 2025 could bring more uncertainty, as the lagging effects of Trump’s tariff policy and any setbacks on potential deals with China could create new volatility in the market,” explains the investor.

Those concerns are not just theoretical. Zhang points to the unresolved H20 issue, stemming from U.S. export restrictions, as a key example. Nvidia is now expected to take an $8 billion inventory write-off as a result, and its margins are likely to decline further on a sequential basis. More broadly, the company has acknowledged it could forfeit access to a $50 billion total addressable market in China if those restrictions remain in place.

Moreover, while Zhang believes that Nvidia will be able to navigate any economic slowdowns, the investor thinks there is a high possibility that the impact of the Trump tariffs will be felt during the latter part of the year.

Against that backdrop, Zhang emphasizes that the recent rally in Nvidia’s stock may not be sustainable without renewed visibility. He notes that further upside will hinge largely on AI spending trends in 2026, an outlook he calls “highly uncertain.” In short, while Nvidia’s fundamentals remain strong, its near-term growth path is anything but guaranteed.

“Chasing the stock’s rally from here seems less compelling to me,” concludes Zhang, who gives NVDA a Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. (To watch Zhang’s track record, click here)

Wall Street has a decidedly rosier view of NVDA. With 35 Buy, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell recommendations, NVDA continues to enjoy a Strong Buy consensus rating. Its 12-month average price target of $172.36 implies an upside north of 20%. (See NVDA stock forecast)