Tesla (NASDAQ:TLSA) stock has had a rough go of things over the past few weeks. Weakening EV sales and delivery numbers, increasing competition in China, and concerns over high valuations have all contributed to push share prices down by double digits in 2025.
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And yet, one can count on CEO Elon Musk to put a positive spin on the company’s prospects, touting the massive opportunities in robotaxis and robots in the years to come. Musk also remains bullish on the company’s EV deliveries, claiming that the company is slated to expand production by 20-30% in 2025.
Does Musk’s optimism match the facts on the ground?
One top investor, known by the pseudonym Value Portfolio, isn’t buying it, predicting a turbulent road for Tesla.
“Tesla faces significant risks in 2025, including declining sales in Europe and China, and potential U.S. market challenges due to policy changes,” warns Value Portfolio, who sits among the top 1% of TipRanks’ stock pros.
And the latest numbers aren’t exactly helping Tesla’s case. January sales in Europe saw a steep year-over-year decline, while in China, deliveries plunged 33% from December.
While Musk’s political affiliations haven’t been directly blamed for the slump, there’s no ignoring the growing backlash. The Polish Minister of Tourism has already called for a Tesla boycott.
Back at home, a number of Trump administration policies are threatening Tesla’s domestic sales, notes Value Portfolio, citing the removal of funding for charging stations, ending EV tax credits, and the scaling back of emissions standards.
“This is a triple whammy for the company in its home market, the United States,” notes Value Portfolio.
The Trump administration is also in the process of introducing tariffs against friends and foes alike, reminds the investor. The potential implementation of retaliatory measures against American companies – perhaps even targeting Tesla specifically – should not be discounted.
All these increasing pressures are causing Value Portfolio to express some serious doubts regarding Tesla’s 2025 EV sales and deliveries.
“Elon Musk has announced the target for 20-30% growth in 2025; however, we expect that to be another missed estimate like so many of Tesla’s prior ones,” notes Value Portfolio. “Tesla does not have a history of accurately forecasting its own growth.”
Plain and simple, with weak growth and a $1 trillion valuation, Tesla is a Strong Sell, asserts The Value Portfolio. (To watch The Value Portfolio’s track record, click here)
Wall Street is firmly divided between bulls, bears, and those still waiting to see. With 13 Buy, 12 Hold, and 10 Sell recommendations, TSLA holds a consensus Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating. Its 12-month average price target of $351.38 implies a modest 4% upside during the next year. (See TSLA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
