Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is approaching the end of Q3, and it’s almost time for the EV giant to announce its quarterly delivery haul.
In fact, Baird analyst Ben Kallo believes the company is well-positioned to surpass Street expectations.
“Third-party data such as China insurance registrations along with the absence of factory downtime and our checks with IR all point to strong Q3 deliveries,” Kallo explained.
Kallo expects Q3 deliveries will hit 480,000, surpassing the consensus estimate of ~461,000. Since delivery figures are a key indicator for the company, if Kallo’s prediction holds true, Tesla shares could see a positive response.
However, it represents just the opening half of what could be an impactful one-two punch. The Q3 delivery announcement will be swiftly followed by the October 10 robotaxi unveiling. And that event could help boost sentiment should the delivery numbers fail to impress.
“With the robotaxi unveil event shortly after the estimated deliveries date, we speculate that even an in-line or weaker deliveries number would be viewed by investors as a look through with a significant potential catalyst coming soon after,” the analyst opined.
Beyond robotaxis, Kallo expects more news from the event, including the reveal of Tesla’s lower-cost vehicle, with production expected to begin in Q4 2025. While the new model could boost volume forecasts for next year, Kallo cautions that factory downtime, due to retooling for the new vehicle, may lead to some “lumpiness in deliveries.”
That is further ahead, however, and with the Q3 deliveries and robotaxi event looming, Kallo takes a positive stance.
“The near-term setup is favorable in our view, and we are buyers into both the deliveries release (estimated 10/2) and robotaxi event (10/10),” he summed up.
Bottom line, Kallo rates Tesla shares an Outperform (i.e., Buy), with a $280 price target. Should the figure be met, investors will be pocketing returns of 10% over the next 12 months. (To watch Kallo’s track record, click here)
That, though, is a more optimistic take than the one taken by most of Kallo’s colleagues. All in, TSLA stock claims a Hold (i.e. Neutral) consensus rating, based on a mix of 16 Holds, 12 Buys, and 8 Sells. Moreover, the forecast calls for a one-year decline of ~19% for the stock, considering the average price target currently stands at $210.56. (See Tesla stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
