Venture Global price target lowered to $18 from $25 at Mizuho

Mizuho lowered the firm’s price target on Venture Global (VG) to $18 from $25 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company’s $2B fiscal 2025 EBITDA guidance miss appeared to be the Street’s main takeaway from the Q4 update last Thursday, as shares declined 36%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the selloff is “overly punitive,” saying Venture is being punished for a downside development in a part of its business, merchant marketing of commissioning cargos, that was known to be highly variable. Mizuho is not convinced last week’s update “permanently impairs” Venture Global’s earnings power or ability to deliver on catalysts. However, the firm lowered estimates after marking to market for the prevailing gas curve.