Vail Resorts initiated with a Neutral at UBS

UBS initiated coverage of Vail Resorts (MTN) with a Neutral rating and $185 price target After a decade of double-digit annual EBITDA growth prior to Covid, driven mostly by acquisitions, and with limited earnings accretion and limited same-store growth since 2018, Vail is entering a period of more measured EBITDA growth in the 3%-5% range, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS says that despite further pass product penetration which could counter some of the weather related uncertainty, it sees Vail’s visitation normalizing closer to 17.4M ski visits in fiscal 2025, implying further decline in underlying total visitations outside of Crans Montana acquisition.