Morgan Stanley believes UPS (UPS) shares will be under pressure today despite the company’s Q4 beat as the FY25 guidance is implied to come in about 5% below consensus and the company looks set to lose a significant amount of volume over the next year as its largest customer, Amazon (AMZN), significantly accelerates insourcing. In addition to SurePost being 100% insourced, these more then offset the cost actions announced, which could be “a significant drag on normalized/2026 EPS for UPS,” the analyst tells investors. The analyst, who reiterates the firm’s view of normalized EPS of $7-$8 and $100 price target, maintains an Underweight rating on UPS shares.
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