UBS sees continuation of market conditions entering Q4

UBS (UBS) said: “In the third quarter of 2024 we saw strong client activity against a market backdrop that, while constructive, still exhibited periods of high volatility and dislocation. Entering the fourth quarter, we see a continuation of these market conditions sustained by the prospects of a soft landing in the US economy. However, the macroeconomic outlook in the rest of the world remains clouded. In addition to seasonality, the ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the upcoming US elections are creating uncertainties that are likely to affect investor behavior. In the fourth quarter, we anticipate a mid-single digit decline in net interest income in Global Wealth Management and a low single-digit decline in Personal & Corporate Banking. Non-core and Legacy is expected to generate a quarterly pre-tax loss in line with our earlier guidance. The Group’s non-personnel costs are expected to show a seasonal sequential uptick. The Group’s quarterly tax rate is expected to be around 35%. Integration-related expenses are expected to be around USD 1.2bn and accretion of PPA effects to contribute around USD 0.5bn to the Group’s total revenues.”