UBS says ‘constructive’ market conditions continued into Q1

The company said, “Investor sentiment remained positive in the fourth quarter of 2024, driving strong institutional and private client activity supported by a constructive market backdrop that reflected an increase in investors’ risk appetite following the results of the US presidential election. Constructive market conditions have continued into the first quarter of 2025 sustained by the greater optimism regarding growth prospects in the US. However, investor behavior may be affected by the clouded macroeconomic outlook outside the US, increased uncertainties around global trade, inflation and central bank policies, as well as geopolitics, including the upcoming elections in Germany. We see the markets as remaining particularly sensitive to new developments, positive or negative, leading to potential spikes in volatility across all asset classes. In the first quarter, we expect a low-to-mid single digit percentage sequential decline in net interest income in Global Wealth Management and around a 10% sequential decline in Personal & Corporate Banking’s NII, measured in Swiss francs. Higher asset levels are expected to support recurring fee income across our asset-gathering businesses. As we progress our integration plans integration-related expenses are expected to be around $1.1B and accretion of PPA effects to contribute around $0.5B to the Group’s total revenues. We remain focused on supporting clients with advice and solutions and continue to execute on our priorities, investing in people, products, and capabilities to drive sustainable long-term value for our stakeholders while maintaining a balance sheet for all seasons.”