Trump Trade: TikTok CEO seeks Musk’s counsel on Trump presidency

Catch up on the top industries and stocks that were impacted, or were predicted to be impacted, by the comments, actions and policies of President-elect Trump with this daily recap compiled by The Fly:

END OF USMCA: Discussing the auto industry space, Bernstein told investors that it believes a doubling of tariffs on U.S. automotive imports would likely be manageable and be passed on to consumers. However, if the administration changed the USMCA free trade agreement, the sector would face significant headwinds, mostly hurting” the Detroit 3,” the firm argues. About half of the U.S.’s auto imports stem from Mexico and Canada. If the incoming administration would reinstate tariffs, 2.5% for parts and cars, and 25% for trucks, imports from Mexico and Canada could face headwinds of up to $15B, Bernstein explains. This large amount is driven by truck production in Mexico and the high tariff rate. The firm believes a change to the USMCA free trade status would impact General Motors (GM) the most, followed by Stellantis (STLA), Ford (F), and Toyota (TM).

CHINA TARIFFS: In a research note to investors discussing the potential impact of proposed tariffs on e-commerce and advertising, Wells Fargo said that it believes Amazon (AMZN) has the most meaningful exposure to China-sourced goods at estimated 50%, but it is still likely able to mitigate impacts. Seller gross margins or units should be impacted, likely negatively impacting ad spend, Wells adds. Meta Platforms (META) at 10% and Alphabet (GOOG) at 7% are the most exposed to China advertisers, the firm adds. With that said, Wells doesn’t think a 60% China tariff would meaningfully change the competitive dynamic between its e-commerce coverage and Temu/Shein.

MUSK COUNSEL: TikTok is reaching out for insight about the U.S. from Elon Musk, who is both owner of a rival social-media platform and one of President-elect Trump’s closest confidants, The Wall Street Journal’s Juliet Chung, Raffaele Huang and Dana Mattioli report. Shou Chew, chief executive of the popular video app, initiated messages with the billionaire in recent weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. Chew, who has known Musk for several years, asked the Tesla (TSLA) CEO, who also owns the social-media platform X, his opinions on topics ranging from the incoming administration to potential tech policy, some of the people said. In meetings, Musk has weighed in on cabinet positions and joined Trump on calls with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, the publication adds.

SLOW GDP GROWTH: Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter expects lower immigration flows and more tariffs to slow gross domestic product growth in the U.S. and make inflation “stickier” over the next two years. Inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration could “spark greater Fed caution,” leading to an inters rate cut pause in Q2 of 2025, the economist tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley believes rate cuts could resume in the second half of 2026 as higher tariffs hit growth and job gains “almost stop.” It forecasts real GDP growth will slow to 1.9% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.

ELECTION SELLOFF: Northland views the post-election weakness in rural fiber names Calix (CALX) and Clearfield (CLFD), likely driven by concerns that Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program funding will be either delayed or more biased toward satellite broadband, as buying opportunities. The state of Louisiana submitted its final proposal for BEAD with 95% of the funds allocated to fiber, the for, tells investors in a research note. Northland says this shows that many of the state processes are very far along and that fiber will always be the preferred option over the longer term. The firm thinks a likely scenario post the Trump win is that the National Telecommunications and Information Administration opens up the definition of “reliable broadband service” to include satellite and fixed wireless, giving states the flexibility to fund these options in the likely event that fiber is cost prohibitive for an entire state. It had assumed that 10%-plus of BEAD awards would be fixed wireless, and says that percentage is likely to move higher with satellite.

STOCK TARGET CHANGES:

Oppenheimer raised the firm’s price target on Coinbase (COIN) to $358 from $265 and kept an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm noted that the sentiment and momentum for crypto has gone through the roof after Trump won the election and Republicans secured the majority of both House and Senate.

Benchmark raised the firm’s price target on MicroStrategy (MSTR) to $650 from $450 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. The share price has continued the upward surge that began when the U.S. election victory of President-Elect Trump on November 5 sparked optimism about a much more supportive stance toward bitcoin.

OTHER NEWS:

For years, Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook developed a personal relationship with President-elect Donald Trump, building rapport by zeroing in on areas of mutual interest, Chip Cutter and Aaron TIlley of The Wall Street Journal report. In the first Trump administration, Cook would appeal directly to Trump through phone calls and meals rather than sending government relations executives and lobbyists, people familiar with the interactions told the Journal.