Trump Trade: Analyst moves to sidelines on Capital One after Trump rally

Catch up on the top industries and stocks that were impacted, or were predicted to be impacted, by the comments, actions and policies of President-elect Trump with this daily recap compiled by The Fly:

CEO TRANSITION OVERHANG: Keefe Bruyette downgraded Shift4 Payments (FOUR) to Market Perform from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $112. The company’s founder CEO Jared Isaacman is key to the investment thesis, and following news of a potential transition Isaacman has been nominated for the position of NASA Administrator, it may be hard to convince investors that the story is unchanged, the firm tells investors in a research note. Keefe says it may take at least until the second half of 2025 for the new CEO “to settle in and earn investor confidence.” The firm views the potential CEO transition as a likely overhang on the shares in the near term.

RATING CHANGES AFTER TRUMP RALLY: BofA downgraded Capital One (COF) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $200, down from $203. Shares have rallied following the election as investors believe the potential Discover (DFS) deal will be more likely to close as the Trump administration is considered to be more accommodative to M&A, the firm tells investors. While merger closing prospects have improved and execution has been “solid,” BofA now views the risk/reward as more balanced.

The firm also downgraded SoFi Technologies (SOFI) to Underperform from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $12. The shares are up 120% over the last three months, in part due to the Trump election and favorable Q3 results, notes BofA. While recent execution has been “solid,” the firm believes valuation is ahead of fundamentals after the rally.

BUY SYNCHRONY: JPMorgan upgraded Synchrony (SYF) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $72, up from $59. Synchrony has already begun to implement its mitigating actions to offset lost revenue from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s late fee rule, which may result in a period of overearning while the late fee rule is mired in litigation, the firm tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says that if the CFPB rescinds its late fee rule under the Trump administration, there could be upside to estimates if mitigating actions “prove to be sticky.” JPMorgan adds the stock’s discount to the S&P 500 remains wider than its historical average.

STOCK COVERAGE, PRICE TARGET CHANGES:

Deutsche Bank analyst Bernard von-Gizycki initiated coverage of First Citizens (FCNCA) with a Buy rating and $2,600 price target, which represents 18% upside potential. The firm likes the bank’s leverage to the capital markets and reregulation under a President Trump.

JPMorgan says market outcomes for consumer and specialty finance in 2025 will likely be determined by how far the Trump administration can go in implementing its policy objectives. The firm lowered the firm’s price target on:

• Overweight-rated Annaly Capital (NLY) to $20 from $21;
• Overweight-rated AGNC Investment (AGNC) to $9.50 from $10;
• Overweight-rated KKR Real Estate Finance (KREF) to $11.50 from $12;
• Overweight-rated NMI Holdings (NMIH) to $41 from $46;
• Neutral-rated Enact Holdings (ACT) to $36 from $39;
• Neutral-rated Essent Group (ESNT) to $60 from $67;
• Underweight-rated Guild Mortgage (GHLD) to $13 from $14.50;
• Underweight-rated Rocket Companies (RKT) to $14 from $19;
• Neutral-rated Navient (NAVI) to $15 from $15.50;
• Neutral-rated SLM (SLM) to $27 from $24;
• Overweight-rated Ally Financial (ALLY) to $42 from $40;
• Overweight-rated OneMain (OMF) to $59 from $56;
• Neutral-rated Discover to $150 from $135;
• Neutral-rated Capital One to $186 from $162;
• Neutral-rated American Express (AXP) to $301 from $286;

With an upcoming change in U.S. administration, Citi remains “selectively bullish” on multi-industry companies as divergent market trends among industrial verticals could continue for the time being, the firm tells investors in a research note. The firm raised its price target on:

• Buy-rated Vontier (VNT) to $46 from $44;
• Buy-rated Vertiv Holdings (VRT) to $155 from $141;
• Buy-rated Trane (TT) to $478 from $457;
• Buy-rated Rockwell Automation (ROK) to $345 from $313;
• Buy-rated Quanta Services (PWR) to $394 from $348;
• Buy-rated nVent Electric (NVT) to $91 from $78;
• Buy-rated Pentair (PNR) to $126 from $113;
• Buy-rated ITT (ITT) to $183 from $176;
• Buy-rated Ingersoll-Rand (IR) to $119 from $112;
• Neutral-rated Illinois Tool Works (ITW) to $279 from $266;
• Buy-rated Idex Corp. (IEX) to $269 from $251;
• Buy-rated Honeywell (HON) to $268 from $244;
• Neutral-rated GE Vernova (GEV) to $361 from $292;
• Buy-rated Gates Industrial (GTES) to $27 from $24;
• Buy-rated Flowserve (FLS) to $73 from $65;
• Buy-rated Eaton (ETN) to $440 from $394;
• Buy-rated Dover (DOV) to $236 from $226;
• Buy-rated APi Group (APG) to $45 from $42;
• Neutral-rating A.O. Smith (AOS) to $78 from $85.