Texas Instruments risk profile incrementally higher, at Stifel

After Texas Instruments hosted a call to update capital management plans, Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg believes there has been “a clear structural change not necessarily in the company’s ability to achieve its FCF/share growth targets, but rather the additional levers needed to do so.” Whereas TI could lean more heavily on controlling costs and being more “opportunistic” on capex, given the outsized capital outlays envisioned through 2026 and beyond, the company has now become more reliant on top-line performance to achieve its FCF/share growth than ever before, argues the analyst, who says “this represents an incremental shift upwards in the company’s risk profile.” Adding that this is “counterbalanced to a large degree by several factors,” including the anticipated ITC benefits, CHIPS Act funding and subsidized loans and an improved product portfolio, the firm notes that it maintains a Hold rating and $200 price target on the shares.