Seaport downgrades TopBuild, Installed Building on moderating housing starts

Seaport Research downgraded both TopBuild (BLD) and Installed Building Products (IBP) to Neutral from Buy without price targets. The firm sees moderating housing starts in the first half of 2025, with low to mid-single digit growth from the largest public builders, amid rising new home supply. It downgrades both stocks as a result. Seaport still thinks the installer and distributor model is well positioned to leverage inflationary conditions. However, recent data is “framing a less certain outcome for positive unit growth,” the firm contends. The stocks may already account for some of the caution, but given rising conviction in slower starts, Seaport thinks “it is wise to move to the sidelines, before our fundamental outlook is realized,” the analyst writes.