Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison notes that Regeneron (REGN) and partner Sanofi (SNY) are expected to report pivotal Phase 3 data from the BOREAS trial of Dupixent for the treatment of moderate-to-severe COPD with Type 2 inflammation in Q1 and the firm names Regeneron as a "Catalyst Driven Idea" ahead of that readout. In a scenario where Dupixent demonstrates significant clinical efficacy in this indication, to which it assigns 30% odds, the firm would expect Regeneron shares to be up about 5%-7%. In a scenario where Dupixent meets the primary endpoint, but there is some debate around the effect size, which the firm assigns 30% odds of happening, the firm would expect shares to be up about 2%-4%. In a case where Dupixent fails in COPD, which Morgan Stanley sees as having 40% odds, the firm sees Regeneron shares falling about 2%-4%. Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating on Regeneron with a price target of $883 on the shares.
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