Rate cuts bringing ‘soft landing’ inconsistent with history, says Roth MKM

Roth MKM chief economist Michael Darda says Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this morning “confirmed what we all know (and was already priced in): the time has come for the Fed to shift toward easing policy.” The economist believes the S&P 500 Index “remains incredibly optimistic” about future growth and earnings prospects. This was also the case in July 1990, March 2000, October 2007, and February 2020, the firm tells investors in a research note. Wall Street believes a few “modest” rate cuts toward the end of the year will preserve a “soft landing,” but this is inconsistent with recent business cycle history, Roth writes. It adds that the last four recessions began an average of 15 months after the last Federal Reserve rate hike. We are now 13 months from the last hike with the unemployment rate rising “in a way only seen during downturns in the past,” according to the economist.