Porch Group EBITDA targets ‘seem aggressive,’ says Keefe Bruyette

Keefe Bruyette keeps a Market Perform rating on Porch Group (PRCH) with a $3.50 price target after the company provided financial targets for 2025 and 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $50M and $100M, respectively. While the targets are well above the consensus estimates of $24M and $31M, the estimates have been in flux pending the restructuring of the company’s insurance business, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Keefe also believes the targets are inclusive of $15M in annual interest income on Porch’s surplus notes from its insurance carrier, Homeowners of America Insurance Company, which models do not include. At first blush, the EBITDA targets “seem aggressive, but we will look for management to defend its assumptions at the investor day later his week,” says Keefe.