Piper downgrades Dollar Tree, says ‘uniquely disadvantaged’ into election

Piper Sandler downgraded Dollar Tree to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $112, down from $143. While the shares are down 27% year-to-date, suggesting a lot of bad news is already priced in, the company is “uniquely disadvantaged regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election,” the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says a return of President Trump’s tariff policies or President Biden’s overtime policy becoming law would both be bad for Dollar Tree. With tariffs seeming the more likely outcome, the shares “have become difficult to own for anyone with a 12+ month time horizon,” contends Piper. Separately, the firm’s 2024 earnings bridge work suggests consensus estimates for both 2024 and 2025 are too high.