Pagaya assumed with a Neutral at UBS

UBS assumed coverage of Pagaya (PGY) with a Neutral rating and $11 price target UBS sees the potential for Pagaya to grow revenue at a 14% compound annual growth rate from 2025-2027 driven by an improving lending environment, growing partner pipeline, expanding wallet share, and increasing loan application conversion, and is encouraged by Pagaya’s average risk retention level reaching 2%-3% of network volume in Q3, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While the firm believes that Pagaya is well-positioned to continue gaining share of the consumer lending market with a growing list of lending and funding partners, UBS sees a more balanced risk-reward profile for Pagaya given uncertainty around the level of credit losses from risk retention assets.