Olin price target lowered to $40 from $50 at KeyBanc

KeyBanc lowered the firm’s price target on Olin (OLN) to $40 from $50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Olin’s Q1 guidance was a meaningful reset lower for its 2025 forecast. KeyBanc now expects flat EBITDA in 2025 vs. prior 10% growth, prompted by 25% miss in Q1 on weaker volumes. The magnitude of the Q1 shortfall naturally prompts concerns about share loss in chlor-alkali, where Olin is pursuing price over volume strategy, the firm adds. Its follow up and earnings calls suggest that the company hasn’t lost customers or share over the last one to two quarters.