Mosaic sees 2023 CapEx $1.3B-$1.4B

Grain and oilseed markets are expected to remain tight through 2023 and likely beyond. The disruption to Ukraine’s agricultural production caused by war, coupled with reduced fertilization and sub-optimal weather in major growing regions like the Americas, Europe and China, threaten global agricultural production. This suggests that global stocks-to-use ratios, already projected at 25-year lows, will remain under pressure. Historically elevated crop prices coupled with fertilizer pricing that has moderated from the post-Ukraine-invasion spike justifies a return to normal nutrient applications. In North America, sentiment has improved significantly from the second half of 2022, and spring nutrient application rates are trending toward normal levels. In Brazil, an attractive fertilizer-to-soybean barter ratio suggests a significant recovery in fertilizer shipments in 2023. For both potash and phosphates, supply constraints remain. In potash, we expect annual shipments from Belarus will be down 5-6 million tonnes from pre-sanction export rates. In phosphates, China’s exports are expected to see only a modest recovery from the recent lows in 2022 but remain well below shipments seen in 2021. In both phosphates and potash, the fundamental tightness in global markets is expected to persist well into 2023 and likely beyond.