Molson Coors still sees FY24 underlying EPS up mid single-digits vs. FY23

EPS consensus $5.59. Sees FY24 net sales up low single digits vs. FY23, consensus $11.73B. The company said, “We continue to expect to achieve the following key financial targets for full year 2024: Net Sales: low single-digit increase versus 2023 on a constant currency basis. Underlying income before income taxes: mid single-digit increase compared to 2023 on a constant currency basis. Underlying diluted earnings per share: mid single-digit increase compared to 2023. Capital expenditures: $750 million incurred, plus or minus 5%. Underlying free cash flow: $1.2 billion, plus or minus 10%. Underlying depreciation and amortization: $700 million, plus or minus 5%. Consolidated net interest expense: $210 million, plus or minus 5%. Underlying effective tax rate: in the range of 23% to 25% for 2024. These targets are based on the following key considerations: In the U.S., our sales to wholesalers were deliberately ahead of sales to retailers by about 1.1 million hectoliters in the first half of the year as compared to sales to wholesalers being behind sales to retailers by about 0.4 million in the first half of 2023. We expect this to reverse in the second half of the year, mostly in the third quarter, as we currently plan to ship to consumption for the full year. The wind down of a contract brewing agreement leading up to the termination by the end of 2024 is expected to result in a reduction in Americas’ financial volume by approximately 1.0 million hectoliters for the balance of the year. Underlying COGS per hectoliter are expected to be higher in full year 2024 as compared to full year 2023. This is due to expected continued, albeit moderating inflation, mix impacts from the wind down of contract brewing volume and a lower volume leverage impact as compared to full year 2023. MG&A expense is expected to be lower than 2023 in the second half of the year.” Tracey Joubert, CFO said, “Given our strong performance for the first half of the year, we are reaffirming our full year 2024 guidance which would mean top and bottom-line growth for the third straight year. And while this guidance implies challenging second half trends related to U.S. shipment timing, we remain confident in our growth algorithm which has multiple levers. From our robust revenue management platform, to our premiumization and innovation plans, to our continued investments to drive efficiencies and cost savings, these levers help us to navigate various market circumstances.”