Macquarie says that based on its proprietary hold model, the firm calculates NFL market hold of 7% for the week of Sept 2-8, below its long-term average of 9%. The firm further estimates total sports betting market hold of 8% for the week of Sept 2-8, assuming NFL hold of 7% and 9% hold for other sports. NY reported sports betting hold of 8% for the week of Aug 26-Sep 1, which included week 1 of college football. Of note, handle grew 28% year-over-year vs the same week last year, which it views positively for NFL. Based on NY data, Macquarie estimates Q3 hold is trending to flat year-over-year at 9.7%. The firm likes the Online sector this fall and highlights DraftKings as a top pick.
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