Jefferies says that although the raging Los Angeles fires are “likely to be among the most destructive in US history,” the firm expects industry loss estimates, currently in the $10B-$20B range, to be “manageable earnings events even if they come near the upper end or even modestly exceed it.” A $20B industry loss would be at the low end of 2024’s Hurricane Milton loss of $20B-$30B, which was an earning event, and would be in the range of the two most destructive wildfire seasons in U.S. history, the analyst tells investors. Among the analyst’s primary coverage, Jefferies estimates that Allstate (ALL), RLI Corp. (RLI), Kinsale Capital (KNSL) and Travelers (TRV) as the most exposed to a $20B industry loss event, while identifying W. R. Berkley (WRB) and AIG (AIG) as “the least exposed.”
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