KeyBanc downgrades AppFolio on limited 2025 catalysts

KeyBanc last night downgraded AppFolio (APPF) to Sector Weight from Overweight without a price target The firm says that since its upgrade on April 7, 2022, AppFolio has outperformed the Nasdaq rallying 125%, attributed to its strong execution in driving share gains, expanding average revenue per user, and meaningfully improving margins. However, KeyBanc lowered its 2025 growth expectations due to a “more muted” near-term units growth outlook. It views 2025 as a transitional year, saying AppFolio faces tough compares and leadership changes. With limited near-term catalysts and the shares fairly valued on a free cash flow basis, the stock’s current risk/reward is more balanced, the analyst tells investors in a research note.