Keefe Bruyette upgraded Starwood Property (STWD), KKR Real Estate Finance (KREF) and Newmark (NMRK) to Outperform from Market Perform with price targets of $22.50, $13 and $16.50, respectively. With the commercial real estate market “nearing a bottom” on key indicators like prices, volumes, loss reserves, and the Federal Reserve signaling interest rate cuts, the backdrop will improve in Q4 and flow into 2025, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that with certain stocks already reflecting positive expectations, it believes the best incremental ways to play this are commercial mortgage real estate investment trusts Starwood Property and KKR Real Estate, which are still down 27% and 50%, respectively, from their peaks, and Newmark, which has the most cyclical revenue mix of peers. Keefe expects improving deal activity and sentiment to drive stocks through year-end and into 2025.
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