Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) are scheduled to announce quarterly results on July 16. What to watch for:
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READ-THROUGH: BofA notes that all five banks – Buy-rated JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citi (C), BNY Mellon (BK) – reported stronger Q4 EPS and 2025 guidance which imply potential for positive EPS revisions. Net interest income beats bode well for the rest of the group and could reignite interest in the regionals. Capital markets ended the year on a strong note, and the firm expects relatively constructive messaging on M&A/IPO outlooks during the earnings calls. Results reaffirm BofA’s constructive view of the mega-cap banks given net interest income upside, well behaved credit costs and its expectations for an improved regulatory backdrop.
BUY BANK OF AMERICA: UBS upgraded Bank of America to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $53, up from $43. UBS thinks Bank of America has largely been overlooked, and that the Street has not yet recalibrated BofA’s EPS power from higher rates for longer in the post-election landscape of de-regulation. Further, the firm says BofA is an overlooked beneficiary of Basel 3 endgame “softening,” as not only would the bank benefit from a less onerous final capital rule, but it has the strongest inclination among the money centers to buy back stock today. UBS believes BofA could buy back $18B of stock in 2025.
Meanwhile, Truist initiated coverage of Bank of America with a Buy rating and $52 price target as part of a broader research note launching coverage of U.S. Large-Cap banks. Big banks are positioned to leverage embedded offense, cyclical recovery and capital flexibility to drive organic franchise expansion, double digit EPS growth, and attractive ROTCE – return on tangible common equity – over FY25 and FY26, the firm tells investors in a research note. The gradual repricing of fixed rate assets and a return to retail deposit growth should also drive a 4%-5% net interest income growth for Bank Of America, producing above-average EPS growth and significant ROTCE expansion by 2026, Truist adds.
PRICE TARGET RAISES: BofA raised the firm’s price target on Morgan Stanley to $146 from $140 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. Strong Q3 results “reinjected investor confidence in franchise potential” and the firm expects the stock momentum to continue on the back of positive EPS revisions and improving capital flexibility.
Barclays also raised the firm’s price target on Overweight-rated Morgan Stanley to $155 from $135. The firm is “constructive” on bank stocks for 2025, saying earnings growth will accelerate on improving loan growth, increasing capital markets activity, return of positive operating leverage, and share buybacks. It sees price-to-earnings multiples expanding on a “sound” economic backdrop, regulatory reduction, higher returns, and mergers and acquisitions. Large-cap banks can continue to outperform the market into 2025 as earnings growth accelerates, contends Barclays. Additionally, the firm raised its price target on Overweight-rated Bank of America to $58 from $53.
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