GLP-1 users’ grocery spending declines 6%-9% after starting, says Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman recently hosted a meeting with Leo Feler, Chief Economist at Numerator, who presented data on the impact of GLP-1 drugs on food and beverage consumption based on the firm’s latest survey of 150,000 consumers. Numerator indicated that 12.3% of households surveyed said that they had a member taking GLP-1 drugs as of January, up from 11.4% in October 2023, the analyst tells investors. Before beginning treatment, GLP-1 user households spent over $150 more a month, on average, on groceries when compared to non-GLP-1 households, the economist relayed. When monthly grocery spending is indexed to adjust out differences in household size, higher income, and children, GLP-1 households’ monthly grocery spending decreased from 6% to 9% more after starting medication use than the change in spending among non-GLP-1 households, the analyst reports that Numerator found. Packaged food companies covered by the analyst who issued the note include BellRing Brands (BRBR), Campbell Soup (CPB), Conagra Brands (CAG), General Mills (GIS), Hershey (HSY), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Kellanova (K), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Mondelez (MDLZ), Simply Good Foods (SMPL), Vital Farms (VITL) and WK Kellogg (KLG). Publicly-traded food retailers include Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Kroger (KR) and Albertsons (ACI). Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) are the makers of GLP-1 weight loss drugs Ozempic, Mounjaro and Zepbound.