Gevo reiterates ‘substantial’ potential adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025

Gevo (GEVO) also announced that it ended the fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $259M. The company said, “Gevo North Dakota: Carbon Capture and Sequestration and Low-Carbon Ethanol Assets generated $150M in revenue in its last fiscal year and we expect it to immediately contribute $30M to $60M of Adjusted EBITDA annually to Gevo’s carbon business. This facility in North Dakota, which was recently acquired from Red Trail Energy is one of two low-carbon ethanol plants with operational CCS that exist today. The site has an operating, fully permitted Class VI CCS well, which captures over 160,000 tons of biogenic carbon dioxide annually; generates multiple times that amount in total carbon abatement; produces approximately 67M gallons of low-carbon ethanol, including 2 million gallons of corn fiber ethanol with an ultra-low carbon intensity; and more than 230,000 tons of low-carbon animal feed and vegetable oil. As a result, this facility has one of the lowest carbon intensity scores in the industry, at 19 gCO2e/MJ or an estimated 21 gCO2e/MJ. We note that the ethanol 45Z tax credit, which takes effect in 2025 and expires in 2027 , provides a statutory $0.02 per gallon per carbon intensity point below approximately 50 gCO2e/MJ. In addition, we are developing an additional alcohol-to-jet project at this location for further future growth, leveraging our existing ATJ designs associated with the ATJ-60 project in South Dakota. The high quality carbon abatement credits generated at this plant are expected to further catalyze the development of the emerging market for carbon abatement products. Renewable Natural Gas : We have achieved excellent operational results that are expected to improve further in 2025 and generate meaningful Adjusted EBITDA. RNG produced in 2024 was 367,000 MMBtu, which was a 17% increase over the prior year, because of a successful gas upgrade capacity expansion. 2025 production is expected to further increase to over 400,000 MMBtu as a result of compressor and reliability upgrades. Our RNG facility has been approved by the Internal Revenue Service to generate biogas 45Z tax credits. Based on the expected carbon intensity score for California LCFS of gCO2e/MJ, a negative number, and depending on LCFS prices, monetization of the biogas 45Z tax credit, D3 RIN prices, and price of fossil based natural gas, we expect Adjusted EBITDA of $9M – 18M in 2025. Alcohol-to-Jet 603 Project: The ATJ-60 project in Lake Preston, South Dakota continues to proceed towards financial close in 2025. In 2024, we received a conditional commitment for a loan guarantee with disbursements totaling $1.462B from the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office for our ATJ-60 project. With capitalized interest during construction, the DOE loan facility has a borrowing capacity of $1.63B. We are actively engaged with the DOE on the closing process for the conditional commitment. Our ATJ-60 project is expected to leverage American agriculture to produce both cost-effective fuels and food, which are integral for energy and food security of the United States.”