Evercore says failure of emraclidine ‘may’ be ‘substantial’ Neurocrine positive

Evercore ISI argues that the “very surprising negative pivotal results” from AbbVie’s (ABBV) emraclidine EMPOWER trials “will be felt across the muscarinic space,” adding that the sudden and unexpected removal of a major potential competitor is “obviously a big boost” for Bristol Myers’ (BMY) Karuna and it’s recently approved Cobenfy, or KarXT. This news “may also prove to be a substantial positive” for Neurocrine (NBIX) “if – and it’s admittedly a huge IF – the company can successfully navigate” its own pending Phase 3 program, the analyst tells investors. If Neurocrine can learn from emraclidine’s trial flaws, the potential downstream upside is “clearly much greater today,” says the analyst, who adds that the assumed probability of success for NBI-568 at these levels “seems miniscule, and today’s development won’t help on that front.” Evercore has an Outperform rating and $175 price target on Neurocrine shares, which are up 2% to $128.31 in late morning trading.