Electronic Arts, Rivian downgraded: Wall Street’s top analyst calls

The most talked about and market moving research calls around Wall Street are now in one place. Here are today’s research calls that investors need to know, as compiled by The Fly.

Top 5 Upgrades:

• BofA upgraded Expedia (EXPE) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $221, up from $187, citing RevPAR and BofA aggregated credit and debit card data that show early signs of improving trends for U.S. travel as well as easy comps in 2025 and “achievable” Street estimates for 10% EBITDA growth in FY25.
• Stephens upgraded Fiserv (FI) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $255, up from $220. The firm’s constructive view is based on the expectation of mid-high teens EPS growth in 2025/26, supported by high revenue visibility, operating leverage and “a track record of consistency,” the firm tells investors.
• KeyBanc upgraded Bill (BILL) to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $115 price target. The firm is “hopping back on the BILL train,” citing the company’s execution and its belief competition from Intuit (INTU) has had little impact on the company’s near-term results.
• Citi upgraded Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) to Buy from Sell with a price target of $133, up from $64, following a transfer of coverage. Ollie’s is “well positioned to win in the uncertain retail landscape,” the firm tells investors in a research note.
• KeyBanc upgraded Q2 Holdings (QTWO) to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $126 price target. The firm cites the company’s durable subscription revenue growth and potential for more bank mergers for the upgrade.

Top 5 Downgrades:

• Stifel downgraded Electronic Arts (EA) to Hold from Buy with an unchanged $167 price target. The firm remains positive on the stock longer term given its fundamental outlook for the company, but it is reducing its net booking estimates following its “review of game model.”
• Baird downgraded Rivian Automotive (RIVN) to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $16, down from $18. The firm sees the landscape for both electric vehicles and renewables as more challenging in the near future due to uncertainty regarding the Inflation Reduction Act and growth in 2025.
• Argus downgraded Beyond (BYND) to Sell from Hold, also suspending the firm’s coverage of the stock. The company’s recent Q3 results saw a third earnings miss in the last reported four quarters, its financial strength is “low,” and its cash balance is dwindling, the firm says.
• Argus downgraded Moderna (MRNA) to Hold from Buy without a price target. The firm sees limited upside for the stock over the next 12 months as the company’s COVID vaccine sales have fallen with the pandemic shifting to a new phase.
• JPMorgan downgraded Match Group (MTCH) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $33, down from $40. Global online dating spend remained stagnant in 2024, and JPMorgan expects “muted growth” to persist in 2025.

Top 5 Initiations:

• DA Davidson initiated coverage of Box (BOX) with a Buy rating and $45 price target. The company is in the early stages of a positive inflection to growth after recent expansions to its platform, and the firm expects to see an upgrade cycle from current customers to more premium tiers of the Box platform, which should lead to both higher growth and margins.
• Melius Research initiated coverage of US Foods (USFD) with a Buy rating and $90 price target and started Performance Food Group (PFGC) and Sysco (SYY) with Hold ratings and price targets of $95 and $85, respectively. Among the “big three,” the firm points to a strong management team, top-tier technology, exposure to stickier, higher-margin healthcare and hospitality, and free cash flow to support $2B in share repurchases for its preference for US Foods.
• BMO Capital resumed coverage of Casey’s General Stores (CASY) with a Market Perform rating with a price target of $450, up from $400. The company has executed exceptionally well on several fronts in recent years, driving same-store sales outperformance relative to convenience-store peers and helped by the company’s strong Prepared Food offering and focus on new item innovation, though this outperformance is reflected in valuation, the firm says.
• Citi initiated coverage of Academy Sports (ASO) with a Buy rating and $65 price target. The firm says that after Academy’s comparable sales have been pressured over the last three years, it sees signs of comp pressure abating in fiscal 2025, driven by recovery in several pandemic categories, stepped-up allocation from Nike (NKE), and a tailwind from new stores entering the comp base.
• Citi analyst Paul Lejuez initiated coverage of On Holding (ONON) with a Neutral rating and $65 price target. The firm sees opportunity for On to expand in apparel, China and its own store footprint, but says expectations are elevated and the shares trading at an price-to-earnings ratio of 56.4-times on 2025 estimates.