Election 2024: Where To Put Your Money Ahead of the Vote

In this recurring series, The Fly recaps where the top analysts on Wall Street say to put your money ahead of November’s U.S. presidential election. In this edition, Donald Trump defends his proposals to dramatically increase tariffs on foreign goods and said that he won’t let the EU “take advantage” of U.S. companies like Apple (AAPL) if reelected.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Electric cars have a “Republican problem,” GOP strategist Mike Murphy said, with eco-friendly vehicles seen as the domain of Democrats, Bloomberg’s Keith Laing and Alicia Tang reported this week. Even high-profile appearances for former President Donald Trump by Tesla (TLSA) founder Elon Musk hasn’t helped reverse decades of derision against plug-in vehicles and the former president’s pledge to end President Joe Biden’s EV policies on “day one.” Trump is running an ad in Michigan that claims Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris wants to end all gas-powered jobs and that auto workers in the state are at risk of massive layoffs. Harris has promised she “will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive.” According to the Bloomberg report, Democratic strongholds of California, Colorado and Washington continue to make up the largest share of new EV purchases, with Republican mainstays including Mississippi, Arkansas and West Virginia making up the smallest percentage of sales. Uncertainty about the election is adding to EV hesitancy, with some auto dealers believing that if the election goes “one way, a lot of the government subsidies are going to go away,” referring to the $7,500 federal tax credit for buyers of the Teslas, Rivians (RIVN) and other EVs that meet certain criteria.

The Wall Street Journal previously reported that while Harris had called for tough emissions standards for automakers which would have required new vehicles to emit zero emissions by 2035, she has recently backed away from that stance as consumer demand for electric cars lessens and pressure on the issue from former President Donald Trump heats back up.

Publicly traded electric vehicle makers include Tesla, Rivian, General Motors (GM), Lucid Group (LCID), Nio (NIO), Li Auto (LI), and Xpeng (XPEV).

ECONOMIC CLUB OF CHICAGO: Trump this week defended his proposals to dramatically increase tariffs on foreign goods, saying the proposals were for the “protection of the companies that we have here and the new companies that will move in.” “It’s going to have a massive effect, positive effect,” Trump said of his proposed tariffs in response to Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait in an interview at the Economic Club of Chicago. “The higher the tariff, the more likely it is that the company will come into the United States, and build a factory in the United States so it doesn’t have to pay the tariff.” Trump has pledged to carry out an aggressive campaign of deregulation, renew expiring tax cuts, lower the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21%, and offer fresh tax reductions and benefits to bolster domestic manufacturing. Trump’s economic plan is heavy on tariffs, which he aims to impose on both U.S. allies and opponents, including a 60% levy on imports from China and 10% duties on the rest of the world.

U.S. STEEL DEAL: Trump also reiterated at the Economic Club of Chicago event his pledge to block the sale of U.S. Steel (X) to Nippon Steel (NPSCY) if the $14.1B transaction was not completed before he takes office. “I think it sets a horrible tone,” he said of the possible sale, saying that steel was a critical national security interest. Both Biden and Harris have said they oppose the sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel. Harris has said that U.S. Steel should remain domestically owned and operated. The deal has become an issue in the U.S. presidential race because U.S. Steel is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, a critical swing state.

GOOGLE: Also at the event, the former president indicated he might not break up Google (GOOGL) if he regained the presidency, arguing it is a bulwark against China’s technology ambitions. “China is afraid of Google,” Trump said while speaking on Tuesday at an event. He also questioned whether a corporate split might “destroy the company,” though he added he was not a fan of Google. “They do treat me very badly,” Trump said. The Justice Department is currently weighing remedies for Google following a landmark court ruling that found the company monopolized the online search market and is considering breaking the company up as a potential remedy.

QUALCOMM/INTEL: Qualcomm (QCOM) is likely to wait until after the U.S presidential election in November before deciding whether to pursue an offer to buy Intel (INTC), Bloomberg’s Ryan Gould, Gillian Tan, and Michelle Davis reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Qualcomm seeks greater clarity on the new occupant of the White House before deciding its next move because of the impact any future administration would have on the antitrust landscape and America’s relationship with China, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Qualcomm made a preliminary approach to Intel on a possible takeover in September. The Biden administration has consistently framed the importance of its chipmaking policy in national security terms, Bloomberg noted, adding that Intel is in line to get the biggest allocation of funding under the 2022 Chips and Science Act, if it goes ahead with all of its factory building plans. Sources said that Qualcomm has been speaking with U.S. regulators and believes an all-American combination could ease any concerns.

UNITEDHEALTH: In a post-earnings note to investors, Cantor Fitzgerald said UnitedHealth (UNH) has the diversified portfolio to perform well in an election cycle, scale and analytics advantages to drive share gain in the fast-growing government insurance market, and product innovation to create a win-win scenario in potentially a tough commercial market. The firm walked away from UnitedHealth’s Q3 earnings with the belief that the majority of the unknowns have been cleared up, views the stock selloff as overdone, and would use it as an opportunity to buy shares, the analyst said.

HIGHER TAXES: Howard Lutnick, the co-chair of Donald Trump’s transition team and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, told Bloomberg on Wednesday that companies like Apple and Tesla will pay more tax in the U.S. under a second Trump administration. He said Tesla CEO Elon Musk told Lutnick he is happy for Tesla to pay more U.S. tax as long as the rules applied to everyone. “Have them pay their taxes in America and that is how you fix America,” he said. “There shouldn’t be carve outs for Apple.”

APPLE AND EU FINES: Former President Donald Trump said Apple CEO Tim Cook called him to discuss the billions of dollars that Apple has been fined in the EU and said that he won’t let the EU “take advantage” of U.S. companies like Apple if reelected, The Verge’s Emma Roth reported, citing comments made during his appearance on the PBD Podcast. In March, the EU fined Apple around $2B after finding that Apple used its dominance to restrict music streaming apps from telling customers about cheaper subscription deals outside the App Store, and the EU later won its battle to make Apple pay $14.4B in unpaid taxes. “He (Cook) said something that was interesting,” Trump said. “He said they’re using that to run their enterprise, meaning Europe is their enterprise. “I said, ‘That’s a lot… But Tim, I got to get elected first, but I’m not going to let them take advantage of our companies – that won’t, you know, be happening.'”

TRUMP MEDIA: Until very recently, the share price of Trump Media & Technology (DJT) had dropped to a record low. Its share price was $12.15 on September 23, an 82% decline from its high. However, the Truth Social owner is seeing a major rebound ahead of the election, more than doubling its share price in less than three weeks, and spiked nearly 50% last week alone. The turnaround has been fueled by the perceived odds of former President Donald Trump winning in November, CNN’s Matt Egan reported. Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida who has studied capital markets for four decades, described the 100% spike for Trump Media since September 23 as “stunning.” Ritter said “Meme stocks thrive on attention, and in the case of Trump Media, the price also reflects the expectations of who will win the November election.” Beyond the election, the stock price has benefited from the fact that the former president has held onto his stock after investors speculated that Trump could dump his shares when the lock-up restrictions preventing insiders from selling lapsed.