DexCom outlook stronger than recent selloff suggests, says Stifel

Stifel lowered the firm’s price target on DexCom to $145 from $155 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following an “expansive” CGM survey of 125 U.S. endocrinologists and primary care physicians treating over 90,000 diabetics. Based on the survey results, the firm refined its DexCom (DXCM) projections, making no material changes, the analyst tells investors. The stock is down about 31% since the SELECT trial publication August 8, though the mid-single digit percentage valuation impact that the firm’s survey suggests with new attrition assumptions implies this is “an over-reaction” based on survey-driven GLP-impacted addressable markets and attrition. The firm’s out-year projections include “under-analyzed opportunities,” including T2 non-insulin patients, where physician expectations were “unequivocally more-bullish than expected,” the analyst added.