Deutsche says Viking data shows GLP-1 market may not be duopoly

Deutsche Bank analyst James Shin says Viking Therapeutics’ (VKTX) Phase 2 VENTURE data shows the GLP-1 market could eventually be more than an Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO) duopoly and the “development playbook is no secret.” That said, manufacturing parenteral GLP-1s at scale to meet the outsized demand has proven to be no easy feat, which gives Lilly and Novo a “defensive moat,” the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the pace of VK2735’s weight loss for the 15mg dose looks superior to Lilly’s and Novo’s max weight loss, which ranged between 15%-20% between weeks 32-48. The 17% nausea rate for VK2735 also compares favorably to that of Lilly and Novo, though VKTX2735’s 63% vomiting rate and 20% discontinuation is higher than that of Lilly and Novo, adds Deutsche Bank. The firm has a Hold rating on Lilly with a $695 price target.