Deutsche says Humana most at risk from DOGE targeting Medicare overlap

Deutsche Bank analyst George Hill says the increasing profile of the U.S. government’s Department of Government Efficiency program has led to a resurgence in news and research focused on the interplay between the Veterans Health Administration health system and Medicare plans. The thesis is that there are many veterans enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans who do not use traditional health services, instead relying on the Veterans Affairs for care delivery, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Deutsche says the government ends up paying for the care of these veterans twice through the Veterans Affairs and Medicare premiums. “Government efficiency wonks target this duplication as an opportunity for the incoming president’s proposed DOGE program,” it adds. The firm sees Humana (HUM) as most at risk. According to Health Affairs, in 2020, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services paid more than $1.32B to Medicare Advantage plans for Veterans Affairs enrollees who did not use any Medicare services. Assuming an 8% growth rate year-over-year, the estimated payments to these plans could reach approximately $1.86B by 2024, according to Deutsche Bank.