Charged: Baird names Tesla ‘Bearish Fresh Pick,’ Wedbush adds to Best Ideas List

Institutional investors and professional traders rely on The Fly to keep up-to-the-second on breaking news in the electric vehicle and clean energy space, as well as which stocks in these sectors that the best analysts on Wall Street are saying to buy and sell.

From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla (TSLA), Wall Street’s newest darling Rivian (RIVN), traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GM (GM) and Ford (F) to the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.

BEARISH FRESH PICK: On March 6, Baird lowered the firm’s price target on Tesla to $370 from $440, but kept an Outperform rating on the shares, while naming it “Bearish Fresh Pick.” Based on the weak intra-quarter sales data from Europe, the U.S., and China, there is risk to Tesla’s consensus Q1 delivery estimate of 437,500, Baird tells investors in a research note. The firm says production downtime associated with the Model Y refresh “complicates the supply-side of the equation while at the same time, Musk’s involvement with the Trump administration adds uncertainty to the demand-side.” 

BEST IDEAS LIST: The next day, March 7, Wedbush added Tesla to the firm’s “Best Ideas List,” while reiterating an Outperform rating on the shares with a $550 price target. The firm says there have been number of times in the Tesla story over the past decade that negative sentiment and Wall Street worries “have overshadowed the narrative of this unique disruptive global tech story.” Wedbush says “the time has come” and believes “this is a gut check moment for the Tesla bulls after this massive selloff in Tesla shares with fears mounting.” This is the start of the “biggest innovation and technology cycle in Tesla’s history ahead over the next few years,” it adds. Wedbush expects a lower cost sub-$35,000 new model before this summer that will help drive pent-up electric vehicle consumer demand globally and get Tesla “back on the growth track.” It also believes autonomous and Optimus will represent 90% of the valuation of the Tesla story and create a company with a valuation that exceeds $2 trillion.

BUY TESLA: On March 6, TD Cowen upgraded Tesla to Buy from Hold with a price target of $388, up from $180, after transfer in analyst coverage. The firm sees merits in both the bull the bear case for the stock, but ultimately comes out “tactically bullish” given the recent share price pullback coming “ahead of several potentially consequential catalysts this year.” Tesla’s “potentially game-changing level catalysts” across electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles and robotics are robust enough to tilt the stock’s risk/reward favorably with the shares pulling back meaningfully from recent highs, TD tells investors in a research note.

SALES DECLINE: Tesla’s hold on China has been sliding for the past five consecutive months, with shipments plunging 49% in February from a year earlier, Bloomberg reports. The market shares of Tesla in China are well under 5% while BYD’s (BYDDF) market shares are heading toward 15%. BYD sold more than 318,000 vehicles last month, which is up 161% year-over-year. Signs show BYD has begun to wedge itself into Tesla’s spot in the market. 

Tesla’s German sales fell 76% in February to 1,429 cars, a steeper decline than the 60% drop in January, Reuters reports. Earlier this week, data showed that Tesla also suffered major sales declines in Scandinavia and France in February from a year ago. 

Click here to check out Tesla’s recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.

ON THE SIDELINES: TD Cowen initiated coverage of Rivian Automotive with a Hold rating and $12.70 price target. Fundamentally the firm is constructive on Rivian, but it does not see sufficient near-term catalysts for the shares given a mixed 2025 outlook and the R2 launch not happening until the first half of 2026. That said, Rivian’s 2025 volume guidance could prove conservative, and successful autonomy over-the-air releases could boost investor sentiment in the second half of the year, TD tells investors in a research note.

TD Cowen initiated coverage of Lucid Group (LCID) with a Hold rating and $2.30 price target. While the Gravity launch “can be a turning point for the company,” the starting price near $95,000 “strikes us as too high” to ensure a robust enough volume ramp and if Gravity doesn’t demonstrate early volume momentum, the stock will “likely struggle to work,” the firm tells investors.

HIGHER VOLUME FORECASTS: Citi upgraded XPeng (XPEV) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $29, up from $13.70. The firm lifted the company’s 2025 and 2026 volume forecasts from 260,000 and 330,000 units to 480,000 and 580,000 units, respectively, citing strong order intake in February. Citi expects three battery electric and one extended range electric new models as well as facelift models launches this year from XPeng. This will likely enhance the company’s existing model cycle between Q2 and Q3, the firm tells investors in a research note. Citi cites strong volume growth in 2025 and 2026 on robust order intake and new model launches, a 2026 earnings turnaround and potentially extra growth drivers on artificial intelligence for the upgrade to Buy.

CEO STEPS DOWN: Sunnova Energy (NOVA) announced that Paul Mathews, formerly COO, has been appointed president and CEO, effective immediately. Mathews succeeds William Berger, who is stepping down as chairman, president and CEO. Berger will remain as an advisor for a period of time to assist with the transition. Mathews joins the Sunnova board of directors, and C. Park Shaper has been named as chair of the board.

BETTER OUTLOOK: Guggenheim upgraded Array Technologies (ARRY) to Buy from Neutral with a $10 price target. Q4 results and the company’s 2025 outlook were in line with the firm’s estimates, though below the Street’s 2025 view, the firm noted. However, the 2025 outlook “appears better than at first glance,” argues Guggenheim, which underestimated the extent to which lower steel prices are driving lower prices for Array. Looking at backlog, the $2B outcome “may have disappointed some people,” but Brazil de-bookings were a headwind even though bookings should reappear later in the year once power purchase agreements are renegotiated, the firm added.