Charged: Analyst sees $2T value by end of 2025 for Tesla

Institutional investors and professional traders rely on The Fly to keep up-to-the-second on breaking news in the electric vehicle and clean energy space, as well as which stocks in these sectors that the best analysts on Wall Street are saying to buy and sell.

From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla (TSLA), Wall Street’s newest darling Rivian (RIVN), traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GM (GM) and Ford (F) to the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.

$2 TRILLION VALUE: Wedbush raised the firm’s price target on Tesla to $550 from $515 and kept an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says it has “growing confidence” in the Tesla’s demand delivery story for 2025 along with a fast tracking of autonomous vehicles under the Trump Administration. After speaking with contacts, Wedbush has growing confidence the Trump administration over the next four years will be a “total game changer” for the autonomous and artificial intelligence story for Tesla over the coming years. It estimates the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth “at least $1 trillion alone” for Tesla and fully expects that under a Trump White House, key initiatives will get fast tracked. Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap by the end of 2025 as the company’s autonomous vision starts to take shape along with “very solid” delivery demand, contends Wedbush.

DEEPSEEK IMPLICATIONS: Piper Sandler said it fielded several inbound emails Monday morning regarding the implications of DeepSeek – the Chinese large-language open-source model that claims to rival offerings from OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Meta Platforms (META) but using a much smaller budget – for Tesla, stating that the firm doesn’t think DeepSeek “represents a threat to the thesis.” The lesson, as the firm sees it, is that A.I. models can “perhaps” be trained using smaller-than-expected capex outlays and as a consumer of GPUs and a spender of capital, Tesla “may actually benefit from this trend,” the firm tells investors. In addition, Tesla’s advantage doesn’t stem from a big capex budget, but the company’s moat stems from a fleet of vehicles that was purpose-built to collect self-driving data, adds Piper, which keeps an Overweight rating on Tesla shares.

Click here to check out Tesla’s recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.

SALE, PARTNERSHIPS: Nikola (NKLA) is looking into options to stave off a cash crunch, including a possible sale of parts or all of the company, Bloomberg’s David Welch and Kara Carlson report, citing people familiar with the matter. Other options under consideration include bringing on partners or raising new funds, the authors note. No decisions have been made as of yet, and management could opt against any major changes, the authors say.

CLEAN TECH STOCKS: JPMorgan says the clean technology group faced a challenging setup in 2024, amid still elevated interest rates, “waning” balance sheets, and slower than expected demand growth. The firm expects its coverage of primarily unprofitable growth stocks to face similar headwinds into 2025, with electric vehicles, EV charging, and hydrogen “in a holding pattern” until project developers and customers have more policy certainty under the second Trump administration. While clean energy broadly may be de-prioritized with a Republican majority, there is room for bipartisanship when it comes to energy independence and protectionism against China, the firm tells investors in a research note.

On the stocks, JPMorgan sees further volatility ahead. Its top picks into 2025 are Overweight-rated EVgo (EVGO) and Enovix (ENVX), which the firm views as more defensive plays within clean tech. Negative sentiment on EVgo “feels overblown as the model is well-positioned for growth,” JPMorgan contends. It expects investors to become more constructive on the name as 2025 progresses and thinks Enovix should see sentiment continue to improve as it executes on commercial and manufacturing milestones this year. JPMorgan has Neutral ratings on Plug Power (PLUG), Archer Aviation (ACHR), and Underweight ratings on ChargePoint (CHPT) and Joby Aviation (JOBY). It also has an Overweight rating on Blade Air Mobility (BLDE).

SELL PLUG POWER: Seaport Research downgraded Plug Power to Sell from Neutral with a $1 price target. President Trump’s “Unleashing American Energy” executive order called for a 90-day freeze and review of the Department of Energy’s OCED H2Hubs program, where only a fraction of $8B in grants has been obligated so far and, therefore, the bulk of funding is “highly vulnerable,” the firm tells investors. Since the end of September, incremental macro news flow for both North America and Europe, Plug’s two most important markets, has been bearish, Seaport added.