Capital Power upgraded to Outperformer at CIBC following valuation reset

As previously reported, CIBC upgraded Capital Power (CPXWF) to Outperformer from Neutral with a price target of C$64, down from C$68, following an 18% year-to-date drawdown. The firm believes the pullback in the share price was largely driven by the DeepSeek news that brought into question future power demand from GenAI. However, U.S. power peers have snapped back, and CIBC thinks Capital Power now offers more interesting relative value and can play catch-up as the company should benefit from tightening power markets, including potential data center-driven load growth in Alberta. The firm also upgraded TransAlta (TAC) to Outperformer, saying that while the company arguably offers more valuation upside, it favors Capital Power as it offers more potential catalysts and is more insulated from potential Alberta power price.