BTIG sees competing offers for Vacasa as unlikely after Casago deal news

BTIG notes that Casago has agreed to acquire Neutral-rated Vacasa (VCSA) for $5.02/share in cash with the deal expected to close Q1-Q2 2025. The firm points out the offer amounts to an equity value of about $129M and enterprise value of about $135M, which it sees as a full valuation for a business with a declining topline and EBITDA losses. Vacasa indicated that it went through a “robust” exploration of strategic alternatives, suggesting to BTIG that a competing offer is unlikely. While there has been a big focus by the OTAs on alternative accommodations, it doesn’t see Vacasa as a fit for the likes of AirBnB (ABNB), Booking (BKNG) or Expedia (EXPE). Meanwhile, the firm’s checks point to ongoing pressure in Vacasa’s business with a double-digit decline in property listings and site traffic down by greater than 30% in Q4.