Bridger Aerospace boosts FY24 revenue view to $90M-$95M from $70M-$86M

Consensus for FY224 revenue is $82.8M..The Company achieved record results in the third quarter of 2024 and continued dry weather in the western U.S. kept multiple aircraft operating into November. As a result, we are increasing our 2024 revenue guidance to a range of $90 million to $95 million from $70 million to $86 million. This 2024 revenue guidance represents an increase of between 35% and 42% over the Company’s reported 2023 revenue. Approximately $6 million to $8 million of anticipated 2024 revenue relates to pass-through revenue from return-to-service work performed on the four Spanish Super Scoopers and the June 2024 acquisition of FMS Aerospace, neither of which was included in the initial guidance range. Given the Company’s largely fixed cost structure and seasonality of its revenue, Bridger typically generates the majority of its Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter each year, during the bulk of the wildfire season. As a result, the Company anticipates its 2024 adjusted EBITDA to grow by over 85% to a range of $35 million to $40 million. This compares to the Company’s initial adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $35 million to $51 million. The Company has yet to realize all the anticipated benefits from targeted reductions to its cost structure, and it has experienced some inflationary pressures that prevented the Company from reaching the higher end of its initial range of adjusted EBITDA. Based on its latest guidance, Bridger currently expects to report positive free cash flow for 2024 in a range of $5M to $10M.