Bet On It: Industry experiences highest-grossing Q3 on record

Welcome to the latest edition of “Bet On It,” where The Fly looks at news and activity in the sports betting and iGaming space. 

SECTOR NEWS: In a regulatory filing, Everi Holdings (EVRI) president and CEO Randy Taylor disclosed the sale of 50,000 common shares of the company on November 26 at a price of $13.44 per share.

Sportradar (SRAD) announced the launch of generative AI audio, a new feature within its ad’s multi-channel marketing service. The tool leverages the power of gen AI integrated with Sportradar’s live data, to automate the creation of personalized, real-time audio adverts for sportsbook and casino operators across one of the fastest growing digital marketing channels globally.

RECORD Q3: U.S. commercial gaming revenue reached $17.71B in Q3, the industry’s highest-grossing Q3 on record, according to the American Gaming Association’s, or AGA, commercial gaming revenue tracker. This makes Q3 the industry’s 15th consecutive quarter of annual revenue growth, with September marking the 43rd straight month of rising year-over-year commercial gaming revenue. In Q3, 29 of the 35 commercial gaming jurisdictions operational last year saw increased year-over-year revenue. This growth resulted in an 8.9% year-over-year increase in state and local taxes tied directly to gaming revenue, with commercial gaming operators contributing $3.79B in taxes across the quarter. Quarterly revenue from land-based gaming – encompassing casino slots, table games and retail sports betting – totaled $12.56B, 0.62% lower than Q3 2023. Meanwhile, combined revenue from online sports betting and iGaming totaled $5.14B in Q3 as online gaming made up 29.0 percent of commercial gaming revenue, a significantly higher share than in Q3 2023.  Through the first nine months of the year, nationwide commercial gaming revenue stands at $53.24B, pacing 8% ahead of 2023 and putting the industry on track for a fourth straight record revenue year.  Traditional brick-and-mortar casino gaming generated quarterly revenue of $12.38B, a contraction of 0.9% year-over-year. Americans legally wagered $30.3B on sports, generating $3.24B in quarterly revenue. Recent market launches in Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina and Vermont contributed to this growth. iGaming generated $2.08B in revenue, marking a 30.3% year-over-year increase. “Q3 2024 continued gaming’s momentum from the first half of the year, with online casino and sports betting driving strong growth. At the same time, new brick-and-mortar casino openings bolstered traditional gaming, which still accounts for the bulk of industry revenue,” said AGA VP of research David Forman. “More than a quarter of commercial revenue now regularly comes from online sources, raising the importance of continued sustainable growth with consumers in those states.” 

THANKSGIVING WEEK WINDFALL: For the week of November 18-24, Macquarie estimates a total sports betting market hold of 8.5%, assuming an NFL hold of 8% and a 9% hold for other sports. After four consecutive weeks of above-average hold, the firm now anticipates that Q4 market hold will settle near the normalized average of 9%, an 87 basis point increase year-over-year. This trend has coincided with a 25% increase in online gaming stock performance in November, compared to a 5% rise in the S&P 500. Notably, Caesars (CZR), Bally’s (BALY), and Rush Street Interactive (RSI) are likely to see the most substantial year-over-year hold expansion in Q4, according to Macquarie. BetMGM (MGM) has also demonstrated strength, reporting two consecutive weeks with hold exceeding 11%, which could signal significant upside if this trend continues, the firm told investors. In Illinois, September data showed a marked acceleration in market parlays and same-game parlays, now representing 30% of handle, up 280 basis points year-over-year and 240 basis points month-over-month. FanDuel (FLUT) led this growth, with parlays accounting for 40% of its handle, up 700 basis points year-over-year. ESPN Bet (PENN) reached 29%, up 140 basis points month-over-month, while DraftKings (DKNG) increased to 27%, contributing to gross gaming revenue, or GGR, market share gains. Caesars achieved the second-largest annual improvement, rising 490 basis points to 21%. Looking ahead to Thanksgiving week, Macquarie expects $4.5B in legal wagers in the U.S., an 11% year-over-year increase. Most betting activity will occur between Thursday and Sunday, with weekly betting volumes projected to rise approximately 15% compared to regular weeks. The firm maintains a favorable outlook on the online gaming sector for two reasons. First, it is the only major segment of the gaming industry capable of achieving double-digit growth independent of economic conditions. Second, it has consistently outperformed market expectations over the past two years. For the fourth quarter, Macquarie forecasts a 23% year-over-year increase in GGR, with online sports betting and iGaming both rising 23% and 25%, respectively. For 2025, we project an 18% year-over-year growth in GGR.

APP DOWNLOADS: FanDuel and DraftKings dominated app downloads with a 23% and 22% share, respectively, according to BofA. Within the App Store’s sports category rankings, PrizePicks secured the number three spot, ESPN Media ranked number five, and FanDuel and DraftKings consistently placed between number six and number 10. Underdog, Hard Rock, Fliff, Fanatics, Bet365, BetMGM, and ESPN Bet occupied positions number 11-20, while Betr and DraftKings Pick 6 ranked between 21 and 30. Caesars appeared in the 30s. DraftKings led in active user share at 19%, followed by FanDuel and ESPN Bet, each with 17%.

SPORTS BETTING SURVEY: Morgan Stanley told investors in a research note that its third bi-annual sports betting survey underscored the industry’s sustained momentum, with participation increasing across all states and significant growth potential remaining in more established markets. Activity among female and older demographics has also risen. Respondents increasingly consolidated their usage around DraftKings and Flutter, prioritizing ease of use as the most valued feature. The firm provided the following takeaways from the survey:

• Awareness/participation continues rising across demos/states w/coincident increase in bet frequency, even in most mature states pointing to long growth runway
• Younger, male higher income cohort remains key sports betting demo but is expanding to older groups and female bettors
• Parlays most popular among younger, lower income cohorts. Parlays also appear to be favored more in newly launched states vs. existing
• Consumers continue to value ease of app use above other factors. However, Fanatics & ESPN Bet are the apps where promos are valued the highest
• DraftKings/FanDuel remain top two preferred apps and widened the moat, though BetMGM made the biggest incremental gain

NFL WEEK 12: The NFL remains a key driver of performance for U.S. sports betting operators, given the high volume of wagers placed on football compared to other sports, Canaccord told investors. Week 12 started strong for sportsbooks, but public bettors rebounded later in the day, according to the firm. October sports betting results have been reported in 23 states, reflecting customer-friendly outcomes during Weeks 6 and 7 of the 2024 NFL season. These results drove down online sports betting hold rates nationwide to 6.5%, marking one of the industry’s weakest months in recent years. In New York, engagement remained strong despite total handle declining approximately 7% year-over-year to $492M in Week 11, according to Canaccord. This drop was partly due to an unusually high handle for FanDuel during the same period last year. However, favorable outcomes and improved structural hold offset the handle decline, driving total gross gaming revenue up 30% year-over-year to $53M for the week.

ADDITIONAL ANALYST COMMENTARY: JPMorgan analyst lowered the firm’s price target on Entain (GMVHF) to 940 GBp from 960 GBp and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

Citi analyst increased the firm’s price target on Genius Sports (GENI) to $12 from $10 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated the company’s model to reflect the Q3 performance and its latest outlook.

UBS elevated its price target on Flutter to $320 from $308 and reiterated a Buy rating on the shares. Headlines from the firm’s conversations include FanDuel’s underlying upgrade cycle in 2024 with potential for another in 2025, as well as FanDuel superior pricing capabilities vs. competitors, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm calculated 46% year over year revenue growth for FanDuel skins for October 2024, representing year-over-year acceleration vs. 41% in the year-ago period.

Stifel boosted the firm’s price target on Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) to $57.50 from $53.25 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which is raising its 2025 AFFO estimate to $3.91 from $3.88 and its 2026 AFFO estimate to $4.11 from $3.93, told investors that its estimates “make some pretty conservative assumptions on investment timing.”

JMP Securities cut its price target on MGM Resorts to $50 from $54 and backed an Outperform rating on the shares. After touring and speaking with several general managers of land-based gaming casinos in Louisiana and Mississippi, JMP believes trends are stable, with no change in November gaming revenue compared to year-to-date trends in Louisiana and Mississippi, the analyst noted. While barriers to passing an iGaming bill are elevated, but the topic of discussion potentially being led by the governor gives it more validity and a welcome option to help offset any increase in the sports betting tax rate, JMP argues.

Mizuho downgraded Red Rock Resorts (RRR) to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $44, down from $57. The firm sees risk to 2025 estimates, as well as a potentially slower development and construction pipeline than the Street expects, which it believes could weigh on Red Rock’s multiple. The stock offers “poor risk/reward” at current levels with downside to Street estimates and risk of potential multiple compression, the analyst said.

PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES IN THE SPACE INCLUDE: Accel Entertainment (ACEL), Bally’s (BALY), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Caesars (CZR), Churchill Downs (CHDN), DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Gan Limited (GAN), Genius Sports (GENI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM), Penn Entertainment (PENN), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Super Group (SGHC) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).