Bernstein says iPhone seasonality could be skewed by delayed rollout of AI

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi notes that reports suggest that the ramp for both iPhone 16 base and Pro models should be relatively normal/strong this year, but iPhone seasonality might be somewhat skewed by the delayed rollout of Apple Intelligence. The firm suspects Apple’s advertising activity to step up significantly as AI features are released, potentially leading to somewhat different seasonality for iPhone 16. Bernstein further points out that initial iPhone lead times have historically had limited correlation with the strength of the cycle. With that said, the firm also highlights that Apple’s commentary on its Q4 call about iPhone demand and its revenue guidance for the December quarter have historically not been well correlated with the strength of iPhone cycles. Bernstein has an Outperform rating on the shares with a price target of $240.