Bernstein remains “convinced in our Bitcoin new cycle thesis” and moved up the firm’s Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 to $200,000 to reflect the positive surprise from Bitcoin ETF flows since launch. While bears argue the ETF Bitcoin trade is done and most of the early Bitcoin ETF allocations were driven by retail investors, and the analyst admits “this is true,” bears are missing that Bitcoin ETFs are on the cusp of approvals at major wirehouses and large private bank platforms in Q3 or Q4 and that the institutional basis trade looks “like the ‘trojan horse’ for adoption, and these investors are in the process of evaluating ‘net long’ positions,” the analyst contends. The firm is expecting Bitcoin to rise to a cycle high of about $200,000 by 2025, $500,000 by 2029 and $1M by 2033, Bernstein tells investors.
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