AppLovin pricing in 50% chance of being worth zero, says Citi

Citi analyst Jason Bazinet says peer multiples suggest the market is now ascribing a 50% likelihood that AppLovin’s (APP) equity is worth zero. The stock has come under significant pressure on the heels of a few bearish reports augmented by a broader momentum “unwind,” the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi concedes that consensus revenue estimates “are lofty,” but remains encouraged by AppLovin’s recent disclosures that suggest the e-commerce pilot is performing well. It also believes changes to the company’s share repurchase program imply 100% of free cash flow may be directed toward buybacks in 2025. Citi keeps a Buy rating on AppLovin with a $600 price target