Apple guidance at risk from lower iPhone builds, says Barclays

Barclays expects Apple (AAPL) to report in-line to slightly better September quarter results, led by late cycle iPhone 15 strength and better Services growth. However, “all eyes are on” the December quarter guidance, which Barclays remains cautious on due to “mixed” iPhone 16 data points and increased news flow on build revisions. Asia checks and supply chain data point to in-line to modestly better September results on better Services growth, late cycle iPhone 15 strength and less currency headwinds, which should offset lower MacBook revenue, the analyst tells investors in a research note. On guidance, the firm believes Apple had a more optimistic view of iPhone 16 volumes after the June artificial intelligence event, but says the actual sell through has been weaker given the negative data points. Barclays now sees more downside than upside risk to its December quarter estimate of 79M iPhone units. Weakness and cuts could also lead to lower shipments in the March and June quarters as well, it adds. The firm keeps an Underweight rating on Apple with a $186 price target