AMD price target lowered to $150 from $220 at KeyBanc

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh lowered the firm’s price target on AMD (AMD) to $150 from $220 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees negative implications given demand for MI325 has been disappointing given marginal performance improvements vs. MI300; and the 2025 outlook for MI3XX has significant contribution from the China SKU MI308; Ex MI308, MI3XX GPU growth in 2025 is limited. KeyBanc is trimming estimates to reflect slightly lower data center GPU revenues in 2025 of $10B given a higher mix of lower ASP China SKUs and also lower Embedded assumptions as it was anticipating a partial recovery in the first half of 2025. While the AI outlook for AMD is somewhat disappointing, the firm is maintaining its Overweight rating as it believes this lull to be transitory. KeyBanc expects AMD to be more competitive with MI355 in the second half of the year and to contribute to more meaningful growth in 2026.