"The supply driven energy crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the steep build of inflation disrupted energy prices and placed a new emphasis on energy security in 2022," commented Craft. "Europe’s shift from Russian energy and U.S. and its allies’ economic sanctions are lowering Russian supply to the world, changing global energy trade routes and energy markets for several years to come, if not permanently. U.S. natural gas and coal exports should benefit in 2023 and beyond. Due in part to this ongoing disruption, ARLP is well positioned to achieve another record year in 2023 by increasing production and sales by one to two million tons and relying on our highly committed coal contract book and a favorable market outlook to deliver 13.0 to 17.0% higher realized pricing compared to 2022," commented Craft. "Even though natural gas prices have fallen recently due to the warm winter experienced so far, coal prices remain elevated in anticipation of international demand firming throughout the year as China’s economy reopens and as European markets look to replace 40 million tons of Russian coal imports received last year but unavailable this year. While the recent decline in natural gas prices are expected to impact our oil & gas royalties segment in the front half of the year, our coal segment should not be meaningfully affected due to our contracted position. In the back of this year and into 2024, we expect global economic activity will result in rising oil, gas and coal prices, and support our guidance. Craft concluded, "We are beginning to see the significant inflation experienced last year start to level off, however labor pressures and higher sales related expenses as a result of higher price realizations and coal sales volumes will continue to add to our costs in 2023. However, we expect favorable market forces and our current coal sales commitments will drive top line growth that should more than offset these inflationary pressures as margins are expected to improve across our business in 2023 versus the prior year."
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