Airbnb buyer retention deteriorating since pandemic, says Barclays

Barclays says the firm’s analysis of U.S. Barclays credit card users since 2016 paints a “mixed picture” on long-term buyer cohort behavior on Airbnb (ABNB). On the positive side, transaction frequency builds as customers stay on the platform, peaking four years after first using Airbnb, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Average transaction sizes are about one-third greater than those in 2020 and newer cohorts and generally trend up over time within existing cohorts, the firm adds. On the negative side, buyer cohort retention for Airbnb seems to be deteriorating over time, and purchase frequency is generally lower and peaks sooner for newer cohorts, it adds. Barclays believes tis analysis supports the view that Airbnb might benefit from enforcing stricter standards in terms of accommodation quality and policies as well as a loyalty program to drive further habituation. Airbnb cohort retention has deteriorated since 2020, but overall better than branded hotels and Vrbo, based on proprietary Barclays credit card data. The firm keeps an Underweight rating on the shares with a $110 price target