Abcam takeout more likely to close than not, says William Blair

William Blair keeps a Market Perform rating on Abcam (ABCM) after the company’s’ founder Jonathan Milner announced a decision to vote against the proposed acquisition of Abcam by Danaher (DHR). While the news “injects more uncertainty,” the deal is more likely to close than not, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm does not expect another bidder to emerge given the open nature of the process and takeout attention that has been invited since the original activist campaign began in May. Blair notes the shares currently trade at a 5% discount to the announced deal price of $24 per share. Given comps in the space, the firm thought a $28 per share or more takeout price was possible. However, it acknowledges the company’s positioning was likely weakened by the activist situation and that Abcam generates about 15% of revenue in China, where the macro situation has deteriorated meaningfully since the company last publicly endorsed guidance.